Qualification · Qualification 110

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

292.72 – 359.04

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

260 – 323

Prediction correct · off by 34.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 584.4 ±9.8

2590Nemesis

Season APEX 231.6Event APEX 113.99Rank 41Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2635Lake Monsters

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 8.8Rank 70Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10980The Deadbolts

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 169.93Rank 19Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 613 ±9.3

1023Bedford Express

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 190.75Rank 28Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3082Chicken Bot Pie

Season APEX 139Event APEX -9.23Rank 67Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6528Terror Bytes

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 177.52Rank 10Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2590, 2635, 10980

/ 100 compat

Projected

292.7 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 2590, 2635, 10980

Auto

70.3 24%

Teleop

155.1 52%

Endgame

70.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1023, 3082, 6528

/ 100 compat

Projected

359 pts

~2.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 1023, 3082, 6528

Auto

72.8 21%

Teleop

180.8 53%

Endgame

87.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.28 · Blue 2.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score292.7pts

Blue projected score359pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -66.3
Score range: 219–433
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 583 vs event baseline 410.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

584.4Season APEX613

70.3Auto72.8

155.1Teleop180.8

70.6Endgame87.5

117Consistency143

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	106	62
teleop	151	177
endgame	3	84
foul	0	0
total	260	323

Result

Final score

260 – 323

Prediction correct · off by 34.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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