Qualification · Qualification 109

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

376.83 – 411.92

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

355 – 403

Prediction correct · off by 15.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 611.3 ±10.5

7840EMONER ROBOTICS

Season APEX 168.1Event APEX 66.33Rank 73Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2054Tech Vikes

Season APEX 244.3Event APEX 173.32Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

16Bomb Squad

Season APEX 198.9Event APEX 137.18Rank 68Record 1-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 718.4 ±9.8

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 70.37Rank 72Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8159Golden Horn

Season APEX 278.3Event APEX 197.58Rank 14Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 143.97Rank 25Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7840, 2054, 16

/ 100 compat

Projected

376.8 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 7840, 2054, 16

Auto

39.1 11%

Teleop

221.7 62%

Endgame

97.4 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5181, 8159, 4655

/ 100 compat

Projected

411.9 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 5181, 8159, 4655

Auto

90.3 22%

Teleop

234.4 57%

Endgame

86.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score376.8pts

Blue projected score411.9pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -35.1
Score range: 303–486
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 758 vs event baseline 411.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

611.3Season APEX718.4

39.1Auto90.3

221.7Teleop234.4

97.4Endgame86.2

125Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	94
teleop	212	215
endgame	82	89
foul	10	5
total	355	403

Result

Final score

355 – 403

Prediction correct · off by 15.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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