Qualification · Qualification 108

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

459.64 – 568.58

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

530 – 400

Prediction missed · off by 119.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 752.3 ±9.3

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 230.24Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4125Confidential

Season APEX 196.3Event APEX 54.69Rank 56Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 174.71Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 694 ±8.1

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 339.59Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1533Triple Strange

Season APEX 157Event APEX 29.68Rank 74Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 199.31Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1506, 4125, 449

/ 100 compat

Projected

459.6 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 1506, 4125, 449

Auto

54.0 13%

Teleop

240.8 56%

Endgame

134.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1768, 1533, 4322

/ 100 compat

Projected

568.6 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 1768, 1533, 4322

Auto

113.5 20%

Teleop

297.2 53%

Endgame

149.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.16 · Blue 2.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score459.6pts

Blue projected score568.6pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -108.9
Score range: 386–643
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 930 vs event baseline 410.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

752.3Season APEX694

54Auto113.5

240.8Teleop297.2

134.2Endgame149.3

82Consistency128

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	136	118
teleop	263	147
endgame	131	105
foul	0	30
total	530	400

Result

Final score

530 – 400

Prediction missed · off by 119.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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