Qualification · Qualification 107

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

447.57 – 635.98

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

322 – 665

Prediction correct · off by 77.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 667.4 ±9.8

364Team Fusion 364

Season APEX 200.2Event APEX 74.18Rank 64Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2491NoMythic

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 242.85Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4766Team SCREAM Jr.

Season APEX 206.1Event APEX 130.54Rank 23Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 922.5 ±13.2

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 202.01Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1690Orbit

Season APEX 442.4Event APEX 297.49Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 80

5653Iron Mosquitos

Season APEX 190.4Event APEX 136.48Rank 47Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 364, 2491, 4766

/ 100 compat

Projected

447.6 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 364, 2491, 4766

Auto

77.4 18%

Teleop

240.0 55%

Endgame

119.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 484, 1690, 5653

/ 100 compat

Projected

636 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 484, 1690, 5653

Auto

115.2 18%

Teleop

363.7 58%

Endgame

148.4 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.97 · Blue 2.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score447.6pts

Blue projected score636pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -188.4
Score range: 374–710
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 987 vs event baseline 409.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

667.4Season APEX922.5

77.4Auto115.2

240Teleop363.7

119.9Endgame148.4

61Consistency96

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	89	158
teleop	131	305
endgame	97	197
foul	5	5
total	322	665

Result

Final score

322 – 665

Prediction correct · off by 77.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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