Qualification · Qualification 105

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

264.9 – 349.64

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

375 – 363

Prediction missed · off by 61.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 633.2 ±10.2

11244Avrasya Robotics

Season APEX 167Event APEX -14.2Rank 57Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10991PioBytes

Season APEX 169Event APEX -1.13Rank 50Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9496LYNK

A+

Season APEX 297.2Event APEX 280.23Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 724.5 ±11.2

5895Peddie Robotics

Season APEX 264.5Event APEX 164.19Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

64294th Dimension

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 66.72Rank 59Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2556RadioActive Roaches

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 118.73Rank 39Record 5-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11244, 10991, 9496

/ 100 compat

Projected

264.9 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 11244, 10991, 9496

Auto

89.1 35%

Teleop

133.6 52%

Endgame

35.1 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5895, 6429, 2556

/ 100 compat

Projected

349.6 pts

~2.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 5895, 6429, 2556

Auto

89.2 26%

Teleop

206.1 59%

Endgame

51.8 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.15 · Blue 2.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score264.9pts

Blue projected score349.6pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -84.7
Score range: 191–424
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 738 vs event baseline 410.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

633.2Season APEX724.5

89.1Auto89.2

133.6Teleop206.1

35.1Endgame51.8

90Consistency110

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	87	33
teleop	222	190
endgame	66	120
foul	0	20
total	375	363

Result

Final score

375 – 363

Prediction missed · off by 61.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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