Qualification · Qualification 104
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
430.68 – 371.01
68%32%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
484 – 370
Prediction correct · off by 27.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 833 ±14.9
Season APEX 242Event APEX 69.31Rank 61Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 365.5Event APEX 231.15Rank 15Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77
Season APEX 225.5Event APEX 130.22Rank 12Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 600.7 ±9.9
Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 33.17Rank 63Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 239.4Event APEX 175.25Rank 58Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 244.7Event APEX 162.59Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3544, 2231, 3931
71
/ 100 compatProjected
430.7 pts
~2.1 RP (championship)
Teams: 3544, 2231, 3931
Auto
94.2 23%
Teleop
221.9 54%
Endgame
93.4 23%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 53%
Supercharged: 17%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5705, 8119, 1391
60
/ 100 compatProjected
371 pts
~1.3 RP (championship)
Teams: 5705, 8119, 1391
Auto
53.2 14%
Teleop
219.2 58%
Endgame
107.3 28%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 53%
Supercharged: 17%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.08 · Blue 1.29
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setChampionship
Red projected score430.7pts
Blue projected score371pts
Red win probability68%
Event bonus sample280alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 53%, blue 50%
Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 13%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 59.7
- Score range
- 297–505
- Upset likelihood
- 32%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
833Season APEX600.7
94.2Auto53.2
221.9Teleop219.2
93.4Endgame107.3
128Consistency87
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 69 | 75 |
| teleop | 233 | 234 |
| endgame | 182 | 41 |
| foul | 0 | 20 |
| total | 484 | 370 |
Result
Final score
484 – 370
Prediction correct · off by 27.2 pts
Score check across official sources:
first-unavailable
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