Qualification · Qualification 103

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

346.56 – 303.24

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

307 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 68.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 573.9 ±9.8

6201The Highlanders

Season APEX 166.8Event APEX 76.05Rank 66Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11417Nano Knights

Season APEX 166.1Event APEX 66.82Rank 20Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

111WildStang

Season APEX 241Event APEX 203.69Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 571.3 ±8.7

3501Firebots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 184.98Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2582PantherBots

Season APEX 211Event APEX 129.9Rank 44Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11214[CY]BEARCATS robotics

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX -11.64Rank 75Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6201, 11417, 111

/ 100 compat

Projected

346.6 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 6201, 11417, 111

Auto

51.3 16%

Teleop

181.0 55%

Endgame

98.0 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3501, 2582, 11214

/ 100 compat

Projected

303.2 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 3501, 2582, 11214

Auto

60.2 19%

Teleop

166.3 53%

Endgame

85.0 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score346.6pts

Blue projected score303.2pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.3
Score range: 229–421
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 512 vs event baseline 412.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

573.9Season APEX571.3

51.3Auto60.2

181Teleop166.3

98Endgame85

81Consistency108

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	36
teleop	154	39
endgame	40	115
foul	70	15
total	307	205

Result

Final score

307 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 68.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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