Qualification · Qualification 101

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

321.34 – 238.31

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

480 – 279

Prediction correct · off by 99.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 707.7 ±9.3

7183W.A.R.

Season APEX 278.7Event APEX 156.43Rank 16Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11242Golden Eagle Mechanics

Season APEX 180.1Event APEX 47Rank 45Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4450Olympia Robotics Federation

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 117.91Rank 51Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 585 ±9.8

5577Kinematic Wolves

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 54.37Rank 55Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2393Robotichauns

Season APEX 212.3Event APEX 158.97Rank 38Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

614Night Hawks

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 24.97Rank 54Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7183, 11242, 4450

/ 100 compat

Projected

321.3 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 7183, 11242, 4450

Auto

67.7 22%

Teleop

160.6 52%

Endgame

81.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5577, 2393, 614

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.3 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 5577, 2393, 614

Auto

52.3 22%

Teleop

139.5 60%

Endgame

41.5 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.28 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score321.3pts

Blue projected score238.3pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 83
Score range: 164–395
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 759 vs event baseline 412.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

707.7Season APEX585

67.7Auto52.3

160.6Teleop139.5

81.7Endgame41.5

131Consistency135

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	57
teleop	306	148
endgame	112	54
foul	0	20
total	480	279

Result

Final score

480 – 279

Prediction correct · off by 99.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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