Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

124.84 – 367.61

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

117 – 168

Prediction correct · off by 103.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 499.6 ±10.7

8069Super Hornets

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 66.9Rank 69Record 2-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

6665C-Otters

Season APEX 176.2Event APEX 77.28Rank 46Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11214[CY]BEARCATS robotics

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX -19.34Rank 75Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 679 ±9.3

2491NoMythic

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 183.77Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4450Olympia Robotics Federation

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 147.49Rank 51Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10991PioBytes

Season APEX 169Event APEX 36.35Rank 50Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8069, 6665, 11214

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.8 pts

~0.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 8069, 6665, 11214

Auto

19.0 16%

Teleop

47.4 40%

Endgame

51.9 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2491, 4450, 10991

/ 100 compat

Projected

367.6 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 2491, 4450, 10991

Auto

88.2 24%

Teleop

178.9 48%

Endgame

104.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.49 · Blue 2.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score124.8pts

Blue projected score367.6pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -242.8
Score range: 48–445
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 285 vs event baseline 425.4.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

499.6Season APEX679

19Auto88.2

47.4Teleop178.9

51.9Endgame104.2

122Consistency110

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	88
teleop	50	73
endgame	47	7
foul	0	0
total	117	168

Result

Final score

117 – 168

Prediction correct · off by 103.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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