Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

724.18 – 604.73

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

612 – 455

Prediction correct · off by 131 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1020 ±12.2

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 61.76Rank 72Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 339.04Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1690Orbit

Season APEX 442.4Event APEX 323.38Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 748.8 ±9.3

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 242.4Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 187.39Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1756Argos

Season APEX 223.5Event APEX 174.94Rank 42Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5181, 7769, 1690

/ 100 compat

Projected

724.2 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 5181, 7769, 1690

Auto

158.6 22%

Teleop

398.6 55%

Endgame

165.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2468, 4322, 1756

/ 100 compat

Projected

604.7 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 2468, 4322, 1756

Auto

126.0 21%

Teleop

322.0 54%

Endgame

148.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.3 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score724.2pts

Blue projected score604.7pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 119.4
Score range: 529–800
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1067 vs event baseline 424.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1020Season APEX748.8

158.6Auto126

398.6Teleop322

165Endgame148.1

63Consistency87

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	173	148
teleop	392	215
endgame	47	87
foul	0	5
total	612	455

Result

Final score

612 – 455

Prediction correct · off by 131 pts

Match videos

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