Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

716.92 – 603.42

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

767 – 613

Prediction correct · off by 29.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1020 ±12.2

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 59.35Rank 72Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 336.6Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1690Orbit

Season APEX 442.4Event APEX 320.97Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 748.8 ±9.3

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 186.96Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1756Argos

Season APEX 223.5Event APEX 174.74Rank 42Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 241.72Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5181, 7769, 1690

/ 100 compat

Projected

716.9 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 5181, 7769, 1690

Auto

159.5 22%

Teleop

392.2 55%

Endgame

163.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4322, 1756, 2468

/ 100 compat

Projected

603.4 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 4322, 1756, 2468

Auto

122.7 21%

Teleop

326.5 55%

Endgame

146.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.28 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score716.9pts

Blue projected score603.4pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 113.5
Score range: 527–793
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1380 vs event baseline 422.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1020Season APEX748.8

159.5Auto122.7

392.2Teleop326.5

163.8Endgame146.7

65Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	154	146
teleop	436	295
endgame	172	157
foul	5	15
total	767	613

Result

Final score

767 – 613

Prediction correct · off by 29.8 pts

Match videos

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