PCH District Gwinnett Event presented by Gwinnett County Public Schools

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

70.64 – 50.52

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

83 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 12.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 178.7 ±11

6705Wildcat5e

Season APEX 78.6Event APEX 36.77Rank 15Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4509Mechanical Bulls

Season APEX 69.1Event APEX 20.24Rank 7Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5074RoboMustangs

Season APEX 31Event APEX 13.63Rank 22Record 4-6-2Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 108.1 ±12.2

6910Mill Creek Steel Talons

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 15.53Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9057G.I.R.L.

Season APEX 32.2Event APEX 22.92Rank 24Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5293Metal Crusaders

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 12.07Rank 19Record 4-5-2Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6705, 4509, 5074

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6705, 4509, 5074

Auto

11.9 17%

Teleop

38.5 55%

Endgame

19.0 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6910, 9057, 5293

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6910, 9057, 5293

Auto

15.1 30%

Teleop

22.7 46%

Endgame

11.9 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score70.6pts

Blue projected score50.5pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 17%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.1
Score range: 33–89
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 121 vs event baseline 99.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

178.7Season APEX108.1

11.9Auto15.1

38.5Teleop22.7

19Endgame11.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	13
teleop	49	17
endgame	19	8
foul	0	0
total	83	38

Result

Final score

83 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 12.4 pts

Match videos

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