PCH District Gwinnett Event presented by Gwinnett County Public Schools

Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

121.16 – 106.35

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

165 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 44.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 367.7 ±10.5

1261Robo Lions Team1261

Season APEX 233.3Event APEX 67.35Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8100Grayson Robotics

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 3.4Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1683Techno Titans

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX 50.41Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 407.8 ±9.9

1648G3 Robotics

Season APEX 139.4Event APEX 61.51Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4189Chargers

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 45.85Rank 8Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

9561Dawson Dinos

Season APEX 58Event APEX -1.01Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1261, 8100, 1683

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1261, 8100, 1683

Auto

40.4 33%

Teleop

63.4 52%

Endgame

18.0 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1648, 4189, 9561

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1648, 4189, 9561

Auto

28.9 28%

Teleop

53.5 51%

Endgame

22.1 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score121.2pts

Blue projected score106.4pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.8
Score range: 88–139
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 226 vs event baseline 99.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

367.7Season APEX407.8

40.4Auto28.9

63.4Teleop53.5

18Endgame22.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	34
teleop	63	4
endgame	16	8
foul	15	15
total	165	61

Result

Final score

165 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 44.6 pts

Match videos

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