PCH District Gwinnett Event presented by Gwinnett County Public Schools

Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

41.12 – 17.36

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

51 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 14.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 158.4 ±11

6910Mill Creek Steel Talons

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 15.39Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3091100 Scholars

Season APEX 82.5Event APEX 14.44Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5293Metal Crusaders

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 11.29Rank 19Record 4-5-2Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 128.9 ±11.6

9522Archimedes

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 2.47Rank 10Record 6-4-2Status establishedConfidence 100

4468Fernbank LINKS

Season APEX 45.9Event APEX 33.29Rank 18Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

8815Barnstormers

Season APEX 35.7Event APEX -18.4Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6910, 3091, 5293

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6910, 3091, 5293

Auto

11.4 30%

Teleop

16.6 44%

Endgame

9.6 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9522, 4468, 8815

/ 100 compat

Projected

17.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9522, 4468, 8815

Auto

10.5 71%

Teleop

0.1 1%

Endgame

4.1 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score41.1pts

Blue projected score17.4pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 16%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.8
Score range: -1–59
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 88 vs event baseline 97.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

158.4Season APEX128.9

11.4Auto10.5

16.6Teleop0.1

9.6Endgame4.1

0Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	9
teleop	35	21
endgame	5	7
foul	0	0
total	51	37

Result

Final score

51 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 14.8 pts

Match videos

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