PCH District Gwinnett Event presented by Gwinnett County Public Schools

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

36.55 – 55.73

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

49 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 35.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 167.3 ±11.6

3318RoboDragons

Season APEX 48.2Event APEX 22.18Rank 21Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

8577Georgia Cyber Academy Champions

Season APEX 68.7Event APEX 14.48Rank 12Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8865Dacula Droids

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX -0.11Rank 17Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 176.4 ±11

6340The Marist Manatees

Season APEX 81.9Event APEX 38.56Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5109Gladiator Robotics

Season APEX 68.3Event APEX 30Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7538Metal Mountain

Season APEX 26.2Event APEX -12.83Rank 26Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3318, 8577, 8865

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3318, 8577, 8865

Auto

10.4 28%

Teleop

13.5 37%

Endgame

12.8 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6340, 5109, 7538

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6340, 5109, 7538

Auto

14.4 28%

Teleop

24.5 48%

Endgame

12.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.12 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score36.6pts

Blue projected score55.7pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 12%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -19.2
Score range: 19–74
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 164 vs event baseline 98.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

167.3Season APEX176.4

10.4Auto14.4

13.5Teleop24.5

12.8Endgame12.4

0Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	19
teleop	27	62
endgame	7	34
foul	0	0
total	49	115

Result

Final score

49 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 35.9 pts

Match videos

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