PCH District Gwinnett Event presented by Gwinnett County Public Schools

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

54.32 – 59.06

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

66 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 22.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 176.4 ±11

7538Metal Mountain

Season APEX 26.2Event APEX -13.16Rank 26Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5109Gladiator Robotics

Season APEX 68.3Event APEX 29.6Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6340The Marist Manatees

Season APEX 81.9Event APEX 37.88Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 178.7 ±11

6705Wildcat5e

Season APEX 78.6Event APEX 31.04Rank 15Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4509Mechanical Bulls

Season APEX 69.1Event APEX 17.9Rank 7Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5074RoboMustangs

Season APEX 31Event APEX 10.12Rank 22Record 4-6-2Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7538, 5109, 6340

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7538, 5109, 6340

Auto

15.9 33%

Teleop

24.6 50%

Endgame

8.3 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6705, 4509, 5074

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6705, 4509, 5074

Auto

10.6 18%

Teleop

32.0 54%

Endgame

16.9 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.13 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score54.3pts

Blue projected score59.1pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 12%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.7
Score range: 36–77
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 158 vs event baseline 99.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

176.4Season APEX178.7

15.9Auto10.6

24.6Teleop32

8.3Endgame16.9

25Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	19
teleop	27	52
endgame	28	11
foul	0	10
total	66	92

Result

Final score

66 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 22.3 pts

Match videos

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