PCH District Gwinnett Event presented by Gwinnett County Public Schools

Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

122.76 – 104.85

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

181 – 209

Prediction missed · off by 81.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 367.7 ±10.5

1261Robo Lions Team1261

Season APEX 233.3Event APEX 66.94Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8100Grayson Robotics

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 4.07Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1683Techno Titans

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX 51.75Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 407.8 ±9.9

9561Dawson Dinos

Season APEX 58Event APEX -1.97Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1648G3 Robotics

Season APEX 139.4Event APEX 61.26Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4189Chargers

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 45.56Rank 8Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1261, 8100, 1683

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1261, 8100, 1683

Auto

45.7 38%

Teleop

60.7 50%

Endgame

14.9 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9561, 1648, 4189

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9561, 1648, 4189

Auto

32.0 32%

Teleop

47.4 47%

Endgame

21.7 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score122.8pts

Blue projected score104.9pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.9
Score range: 87–141
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 390 vs event baseline 100.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

367.7Season APEX407.8

45.7Auto32

60.7Teleop47.4

14.9Endgame21.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	34
teleop	88	126
endgame	34	49
foul	0	0
total	181	209

Result

Final score

181 – 209

Prediction missed · off by 81.2 pts

Match videos

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