PCH District Gwinnett Event presented by Gwinnett County Public Schools

Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

97.88 – 64.79

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

129 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 24.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 407.8 ±9.9

1648G3 Robotics

Season APEX 139.4Event APEX 58.84Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4189Chargers

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 42.9Rank 8Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

9561Dawson Dinos

Season APEX 58Event APEX -3.86Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 176.4 ±11

6340The Marist Manatees

Season APEX 81.9Event APEX 41.24Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5109Gladiator Robotics

Season APEX 68.3Event APEX 33.06Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7538Metal Mountain

Season APEX 26.2Event APEX -9.51Rank 26Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1648, 4189, 9561

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1648, 4189, 9561

Auto

29.1 31%

Teleop

45.2 48%

Endgame

19.8 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6340, 5109, 7538

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6340, 5109, 7538

Auto

14.7 24%

Teleop

30.5 50%

Endgame

16.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.44 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score97.9pts

Blue projected score64.8pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 12%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33.1
Score range: 47–116
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 211 vs event baseline 99.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

407.8Season APEX176.4

29.1Auto14.7

45.2Teleop30.5

19.8Endgame16.1

0Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	21
teleop	59	33
endgame	29	28
foul	5	0
total	129	82

Result

Final score

129 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 24.2 pts

Match videos

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