PCH District Gwinnett Event presented by Gwinnett County Public Schools

Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

39.18 – 110.63

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

29 – 19

Prediction missed · off by 50.9 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 190.3 ±11

5109Gladiator Robotics

Season APEX 68.3Event APEX 0.25Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7538Metal Mountain

Season APEX 26.2Event APEX 12.36Rank 26Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

1683Techno Titans

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX 26.57Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 126 ±12.1

5651Maynard Jackson RoboJags

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 26.57Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8865Dacula Droids

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 66.09Rank 17Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5074RoboMustangs

Season APEX 31Event APEX 17.97Rank 22Record 4-6-2Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5109, 7538, 1683

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5109, 7538, 1683

Auto

11.7 33%

Teleop

21.9 61%

Endgame

2.4 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5651, 8865, 5074

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5651, 8865, 5074

Auto

31.1 29%

Teleop

70.0 64%

Endgame

8.0 7%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.82 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score39.2pts

Blue projected score110.6pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -71.4
Score range: 26–124
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 48 vs event baseline 73.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

190.3Season APEX126

11.7Auto31.1

21.9Teleop70

2.4Endgame8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	8
teleop	6	1
endgame	0	10
foul	0	0
total	29	19

Result

Final score

29 – 19

Prediction missed · off by 50.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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