PCH District Gwinnett Event presented by Gwinnett County Public Schools

Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

15.78 – 30.29

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

46 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 26.5 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 170.3 ±11.6

10482BuzzBots

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX -15.91Rank 23Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4468Fernbank LINKS

Season APEX 45.9Event APEX 6.29Rank 18Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

8100Grayson Robotics

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 25.4Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 179.1 ±11

6340The Marist Manatees

Season APEX 81.9Event APEX 20.86Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5293Metal Crusaders

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 3.14Rank 19Record 4-5-2Status establishedConfidence 97

8577Georgia Cyber Academy Champions

Season APEX 68.7Event APEX 6.29Rank 12Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10482, 4468, 8100

/ 100 compat

Projected

15.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10482, 4468, 8100

Auto

11.4 74%

Teleop

14.9 97%

Endgame

-10.9 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6340, 5293, 8577

/ 100 compat

Projected

30.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6340, 5293, 8577

Auto

10.3 34%

Teleop

14.6 48%

Endgame

5.4 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.13 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score15.8pts

Blue projected score30.3pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 17%, blue 16%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.5
Score range: 2–44
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 99 vs event baseline 77.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

170.3Season APEX179.1

11.4Auto10.3

14.9Teleop14.6

-10.9Endgame5.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	14
teleop	20	31
endgame	14	8
foul	0	0
total	46	53

Result

Final score

46 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 26.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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