PCH District Gwinnett Event presented by Gwinnett County Public Schools

Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

7.39 – 87.01

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

10 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 28.3 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 103.2 ±11.6

6910Mill Creek Steel Talons

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 6.86Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4701Warriors (Team W.I.R.E.)

Season APEX 20.1Event APEX -24.09Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8815Barnstormers

Season APEX 35.7Event APEX 24.62Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 137.1 ±12.2

3318RoboDragons

Season APEX 48.2Event APEX 19.86Rank 21Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

2415WiredCats

Season APEX 19.8Event APEX 6.86Rank 29Record 2-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4509Mechanical Bulls

Season APEX 69.1Event APEX 60.29Rank 7Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6910, 4701, 8815

/ 100 compat

Projected

7.4 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6910, 4701, 8815

Auto

13.4 100%

Teleop

6.3 100%

Endgame

-13.8 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 13%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3318, 2415, 4509

/ 100 compat

Projected

87 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3318, 2415, 4509

Auto

28.1 33%

Teleop

56.4 66%

Endgame

1.1 1%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 13%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.71 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score7.4pts

Blue projected score87pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 13%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -79.6
Score range: -9–103
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 43 vs event baseline 86.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

103.2Season APEX137.1

13.4Auto28.1

6.3Teleop56.4

-13.8Endgame1.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	10
teleop	0	7
endgame	0	16
foul	0	0
total	10	33

Result

Final score

10 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 28.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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