PCH District Gwinnett Event presented by Gwinnett County Public Schools

Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

28.46 – 0

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

25 – 50

Prediction missed · off by 26.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 117.5 ±12.1

5074RoboMustangs

Season APEX 31Event APEX 10.91Rank 22Record 4-6-2Status establishedConfidence 97

9561Dawson Dinos

Season APEX 58Event APEX 4.42Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5293Metal Crusaders

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 13.13Rank 19Record 4-5-2Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 78.3 ±11.6

7538Metal Mountain

Season APEX 26.2Event APEX -16.42Rank 26Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

11174Danes Robotics

Season APEX 32Event APEX 4.61Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4701Warriors (Team W.I.R.E.)

Season APEX 20.1Event APEX 6.38Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5074, 9561, 5293

/ 100 compat

Projected

28.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5074, 9561, 5293

Auto

10.3 37%

Teleop

17.3 62%

Endgame

0.3 1%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7538, 11174, 4701

/ 100 compat

Projected

-5.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7538, 11174, 4701

Auto

4.5 0%

Teleop

-6.8 100%

Endgame

-2.8 55%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.4 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score28.5pts

Blue projected score-5.4pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 15%, blue 13%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 28.5
Score range: -17–45
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 75 vs event baseline 97.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

117.5Season APEX78.3

10.3Auto4.5

17.3Teleop-6.8

0.3Endgame-2.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	11
teleop	14	31
endgame	6	8
foul	0	0
total	25	50

Result

Final score

25 – 50

Prediction missed · off by 26.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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