PCH District Gwinnett Event presented by Gwinnett County Public Schools

Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

111.32 – 272.68

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

26 – 277

Prediction correct · off by 44.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 276 ±10.5

1648G3 Robotics

Season APEX 139.4Event APEX 67.48Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9561Dawson Dinos

Season APEX 58Event APEX 6.1Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6705Wildcat5e

Season APEX 78.6Event APEX 37.74Rank 15Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 539.9 ±10.7

1833Team BEAN

A+

Season APEX 303.7Event APEX 222.36Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1795Carver Clutch

Season APEX 25.8Event APEX 1.17Rank 30Record 0-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4189Chargers

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 49.15Rank 8Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1648, 9561, 6705

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.3 pts

~0.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1648, 9561, 6705

Auto

24.2 22%

Teleop

59.9 55%

Endgame

24.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1833, 1795, 4189

/ 100 compat

Projected

272.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1833, 1795, 4189

Auto

58.2 21%

Teleop

155.2 57%

Endgame

59.5 22%

Strengths

· 1833 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.44 · Blue 2.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score111.3pts

Blue projected score272.7pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 16%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -161.4
Score range: 92–292
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 303 vs event baseline 105.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

276Season APEX539.9

24.2Auto58.2

59.9Teleop155.2

24.3Endgame59.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	49
teleop	7	159
endgame	1	69
foul	0	0
total	26	277

Result

Final score

26 – 277

Prediction correct · off by 44.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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