PCH District Gwinnett Event presented by Gwinnett County Public Schools

Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

7.56 – 37.67

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

47 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 47.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 130.5 ±11.6

5651Maynard Jackson RoboJags

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 9.01Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8100Grayson Robotics

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX -3.18Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9522Archimedes

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 1.73Rank 10Record 6-4-2Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 160.2 ±11.6

8815Barnstormers

Season APEX 35.7Event APEX -21.22Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6705Wildcat5e

Season APEX 78.6Event APEX 27.21Rank 15Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4468Fernbank LINKS

Season APEX 45.9Event APEX 31.68Rank 18Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5651, 8100, 9522

/ 100 compat

Projected

7.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5651, 8100, 9522

Auto

10.2 100%

Teleop

3.4 100%

Endgame

-10.4 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8815, 6705, 4468

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8815, 6705, 4468

Auto

11.8 30%

Teleop

11.5 29%

Endgame

16.4 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.01 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score7.6pts

Blue projected score37.7pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 15%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.1
Score range: -9–55
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 141 vs event baseline 95.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

130.5Season APEX160.2

10.2Auto11.8

3.4Teleop11.5

-10.4Endgame16.4

0Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	16
teleop	16	54
endgame	20	24
foul	0	0
total	47	94

Result

Final score

47 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 47.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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