PCH District Gwinnett Event presented by Gwinnett County Public Schools

Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

32.95 – 39.88

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

41 – 32

Prediction missed · off by 8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 225.5 ±11.1

8865Dacula Droids

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 0.66Rank 17Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

1648G3 Robotics

Season APEX 139.4Event APEX 52.67Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8815Barnstormers

Season APEX 35.7Event APEX -20.38Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 298.1 ±11.1

8100Grayson Robotics

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 0.89Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7538Metal Mountain

Season APEX 26.2Event APEX -12.3Rank 26Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

1261Robo Lions Team1261

Season APEX 233.3Event APEX 51.29Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8865, 1648, 8815

/ 100 compat

Projected

33 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8865, 1648, 8815

Auto

15.1 44%

Teleop

15.8 46%

Endgame

3.5 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8100, 7538, 1261

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8100, 7538, 1261

Auto

20.3 53%

Teleop

19.4 50%

Endgame

-1.2 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score33pts

Blue projected score39.9pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 15%, blue 14%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6.9
Score range: 16–57
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 73 vs event baseline 92.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

225.5Season APEX298.1

15.1Auto20.3

15.8Teleop19.4

3.5Endgame-1.2

5Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	32
teleop	22	0
endgame	7	0
foul	0	0
total	41	32

Result

Final score

41 – 32

Prediction missed · off by 8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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