PCH District Gwinnett Event presented by Gwinnett County Public Schools

Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

45.95 – 54.17

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Tie

Final score

37 – 37

Prediction missed · off by 13.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 147.9 ±11.6

8577Georgia Cyber Academy Champions

Season APEX 68.7Event APEX 19.66Rank 12Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3318RoboDragons

Season APEX 48.2Event APEX 10.59Rank 21Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5074RoboMustangs

Season APEX 31Event APEX 15.7Rank 22Record 4-6-2Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 202.2 ±10.4

4509Mechanical Bulls

Season APEX 69.1Event APEX 22.67Rank 7Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

10482BuzzBots

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 25.94Rank 23Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

9522Archimedes

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 5.56Rank 10Record 6-4-2Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8577, 3318, 5074

/ 100 compat

Projected

46 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8577, 3318, 5074

Auto

12.1 25%

Teleop

18.7 38%

Endgame

17.8 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4509, 10482, 9522

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4509, 10482, 9522

Auto

11.6 25%

Teleop

27.3 59%

Endgame

7.5 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score46pts

Blue projected score54.2pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8.2
Score range: 29–71
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 74 vs event baseline 92.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

147.9Season APEX202.2

12.1Auto11.6

18.7Teleop27.3

17.8Endgame7.5

0Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	15
teleop	16	16
endgame	11	6
foul	0	0
total	37	37

Result

Final score

37 – 37

Prediction missed · off by 13.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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