PCH District Gwinnett Event presented by Gwinnett County Public Schools

Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

59.91 – 78.73

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

33 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 19.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 113.3 ±11.6

4701Warriors (Team W.I.R.E.)

Season APEX 20.1Event APEX 12.49Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9522Archimedes

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 10.24Rank 10Record 6-4-2Status establishedConfidence 100

4468Fernbank LINKS

Season APEX 45.9Event APEX 37.18Rank 18Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 169.6 ±11.7

5109Gladiator Robotics

Season APEX 68.3Event APEX 35.03Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9057G.I.R.L.

Season APEX 32.2Event APEX 15.89Rank 24Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4509Mechanical Bulls

Season APEX 69.1Event APEX 27.81Rank 7Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4701, 9522, 4468

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4701, 9522, 4468

Auto

19.3 36%

Teleop

19.7 37%

Endgame

14.6 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5109, 9057, 4509

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5109, 9057, 4509

Auto

18.2 23%

Teleop

43.3 55%

Endgame

17.2 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.09 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score59.9pts

Blue projected score78.7pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 16%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.8
Score range: 43–96
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 99 vs event baseline 92.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

113.3Season APEX169.6

19.3Auto18.2

19.7Teleop43.3

14.6Endgame17.2

0Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	22
teleop	10	25
endgame	10	9
foul	0	10
total	33	66

Result

Final score

33 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 19.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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