PCH District Gwinnett Event presented by Gwinnett County Public Schools

Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

23.56 – 58.96

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

52 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 33.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 175.8 ±11

9561Dawson Dinos

Season APEX 58Event APEX 2.84Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11174Danes Robotics

Season APEX 32Event APEX 3.45Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10482BuzzBots

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 17.27Rank 23Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 247.5 ±10.5

7538Metal Mountain

Season APEX 26.2Event APEX -13.54Rank 26Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

6340The Marist Manatees

Season APEX 81.9Event APEX 25.99Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1648G3 Robotics

Season APEX 139.4Event APEX 46.51Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9561, 11174, 10482

/ 100 compat

Projected

23.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9561, 11174, 10482

Auto

1.9 8%

Teleop

18.0 74%

Endgame

4.3 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7538, 6340, 1648

/ 100 compat

Projected

59 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7538, 6340, 1648

Auto

15.5 28%

Teleop

28.4 52%

Endgame

10.5 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.98 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score23.6pts

Blue projected score59pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 16%, blue 12%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -35.4
Score range: 8–75
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 149 vs event baseline 90.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

175.8Season APEX247.5

1.9Auto15.5

18Teleop28.4

4.3Endgame10.5

73Consistency122

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	20
teleop	28	49
endgame	12	13
foul	0	15
total	52	97

Result

Final score

52 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 33.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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