PCH District Gwinnett Event presented by Gwinnett County Public Schools

Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

279.39 – 30.3

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

249 – 19

Prediction correct · off by 20.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 401.3 ±10.5

1833Team BEAN

A+

Season APEX 303.7Event APEX 239.11Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4509Mechanical Bulls

Season APEX 69.1Event APEX 36.06Rank 7Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5293Metal Crusaders

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 4.22Rank 19Record 4-5-2Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 118.1 ±12.2

9057G.I.R.L.

Season APEX 32.2Event APEX 18.99Rank 24Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

8100Grayson Robotics

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX -3.94Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9522Archimedes

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 15.25Rank 10Record 6-4-2Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1833, 4509, 5293

/ 100 compat

Projected

279.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1833, 4509, 5293

Auto

49.7 18%

Teleop

166.9 60%

Endgame

63.8 23%

Strengths

· 1833 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9057, 8100, 9522

/ 100 compat

Projected

30.3 pts

~0.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9057, 8100, 9522

Auto

13.3 54%

Teleop

15.1 61%

Endgame

-3.8 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.28 · Blue 0.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score279.4pts

Blue projected score30.3pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 249.1
Score range: 14–295
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 268 vs event baseline 89.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

401.3Season APEX118.1

49.7Auto13.3

166.9Teleop15.1

63.8Endgame-3.8

53Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	11
teleop	174	3
endgame	11	5
foul	5	0
total	249	19

Result

Final score

249 – 19

Prediction correct · off by 20.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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