PCH District Gwinnett Event presented by Gwinnett County Public Schools

Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

25.94 – 32.38

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

45 – 22

Prediction missed · off by 14.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 155.7 ±11.7

1795Carver Clutch

Season APEX 25.8Event APEX -2.23Rank 30Record 0-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3091100 Scholars

Season APEX 82.5Event APEX 15.83Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6910Mill Creek Steel Talons

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 12.34Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 162.5 ±11.6

1683Techno Titans

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX 42.77Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8815Barnstormers

Season APEX 35.7Event APEX -14.68Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5074RoboMustangs

Season APEX 31Event APEX 4.29Rank 22Record 4-6-2Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1795, 3091, 6910

/ 100 compat

Projected

25.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1795, 3091, 6910

Auto

9.6 45%

Teleop

5.1 24%

Endgame

6.7 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1683, 8815, 5074

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1683, 8815, 5074

Auto

14.7 44%

Teleop

17.6 53%

Endgame

0.8 2%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score25.9pts

Blue projected score32.4pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 15%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6.4
Score range: 10–48
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 67 vs event baseline 87.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

155.7Season APEX162.5

9.6Auto14.7

5.1Teleop17.6

6.7Endgame0.8

24Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	13
teleop	22	5
endgame	9	4
foul	0	0
total	45	22

Result

Final score

45 – 22

Prediction missed · off by 14.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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