Qualification · Qualification 40
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
248.47 – 38.39
93%7%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
285 – 39
Prediction correct · off by 18.6 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 355.8 ±10.5
Season APEX 32Event APEX 3.18Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 20.1Event APEX 8.14Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 303.7Event APEX 237.15Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 296.3 ±10.5
Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 19.89Rank 10Record 6-4-2Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 15.27Rank 8Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 3.23Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 11174, 4701, 1833
81
/ 100 compatProjected
248.5 pts
~2.1 RP (district)
Teams: 11174, 4701, 1833
Auto
50.0 20%
Teleop
145.7 58%
Endgame
55.5 22%
Strengths
- · 1833 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 23%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9522, 4189, 8100
36
/ 100 compatProjected
38.4 pts
~0.3 RP (district)
Teams: 9522, 4189, 8100
Auto
9.0 29%
Teleop
18.9 60%
Endgame
3.5 11%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 23%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.15 · Blue 0.35
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score248.5pts
Blue projected score38.4pts
Red win probability93%
Event bonus sample150alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 23%, blue 17%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 210.1
- Score range
- 23–263
- Upset likelihood
- 7%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
355.8Season APEX296.3
50Auto9
145.7Teleop18.9
55.5Endgame3.5
60Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 41 | 15 |
| teleop | 174 | 11 |
| endgame | 70 | 8 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 285 | 39 |
Result
Final score
285 – 39
Prediction correct · off by 18.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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