PCH District Gwinnett Event presented by Gwinnett County Public Schools

Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

68.2 – 199.62

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

11 – 211

Prediction correct · off by 34.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 129 ±12.2

9057G.I.R.L.

Season APEX 32.2Event APEX 21.96Rank 24Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5293Metal Crusaders

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 12.3Rank 19Record 4-5-2Status establishedConfidence 97

5109Gladiator Robotics

Season APEX 68.3Event APEX 33.94Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 395.8 ±10.5

8865Dacula Droids

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX -0.49Rank 17Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

1771North Gwinnett Robotics

Season APEX 276.3Event APEX 177.59Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4509Mechanical Bulls

Season APEX 69.1Event APEX 22.52Rank 7Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9057, 5293, 5109

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.2 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9057, 5293, 5109

Auto

17.9 26%

Teleop

37.3 55%

Endgame

12.5 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8865, 1771, 4509

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8865, 1771, 4509

Auto

55.4 28%

Teleop

110.8 56%

Endgame

32.6 16%

Strengths

· 1771 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.58 · Blue 2.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score68.2pts

Blue projected score199.6pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -131.4
Score range: 49–219
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 222 vs event baseline 105.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

129Season APEX395.8

17.9Auto55.4

37.3Teleop110.8

12.5Endgame32.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	71
teleop	0	136
endgame	0	4
foul	0	0
total	11	211

Result

Final score

11 – 211

Prediction correct · off by 34.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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