PCH District Gwinnett Event presented by Gwinnett County Public Schools

Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

9.37 – 44.06

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Tie

Final score

35 – 35

Prediction missed · off by 17.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 89.4 ±12.7

5074RoboMustangs

Season APEX 31Event APEX 3.05Rank 22Record 4-6-2Status establishedConfidence 97

7538Metal Mountain

Season APEX 26.2Event APEX -13.51Rank 26Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9057G.I.R.L.

Season APEX 32.2Event APEX 19.83Rank 24Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 94.2 ±12.7

5293Metal Crusaders

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 9.88Rank 19Record 4-5-2Status establishedConfidence 97

2415WiredCats

Season APEX 19.8Event APEX 19.72Rank 29Record 2-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4468Fernbank LINKS

Season APEX 45.9Event APEX 14.46Rank 18Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5074, 7538, 9057

/ 100 compat

Projected

9.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5074, 7538, 9057

Auto

8.5 84%

Teleop

1.1 11%

Endgame

0.5 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5293, 2415, 4468

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5293, 2415, 4468

Auto

19.4 45%

Teleop

20.1 47%

Endgame

3.6 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.98 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score9.4pts

Blue projected score44.1pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 15%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.7
Score range: -7–60
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 70 vs event baseline 86.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

89.4Season APEX94.2

8.5Auto19.4

1.1Teleop20.1

0.5Endgame3.6

61Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	12
teleop	14	17
endgame	2	6
foul	0	0
total	35	35

Result

Final score

35 – 35

Prediction missed · off by 17.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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