PCH District Gwinnett Event presented by Gwinnett County Public Schools

Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 273.24

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 392

Prediction correct · off by 81.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 92.2 ±12.1

7538Metal Mountain

Season APEX 26.2Event APEX -21.66Rank 26Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4468Fernbank LINKS

Season APEX 45.9Event APEX 8.14Rank 18Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4701Warriors (Team W.I.R.E.)

Season APEX 20.1Event APEX 3.72Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 511.8 ±9.3

1833Team BEAN

A+

Season APEX 303.7Event APEX 216.97Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1648G3 Robotics

Season APEX 139.4Event APEX 33.87Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8577Georgia Cyber Academy Champions

Season APEX 68.7Event APEX 22.4Rank 12Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7538, 4468, 4701

/ 100 compat

Projected

-9.8 pts

~0.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7538, 4468, 4701

Auto

11.7 0%

Teleop

-17.5 100%

Endgame

-5.4 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 13%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1833, 1648, 8577

/ 100 compat

Projected

273.2 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1833, 1648, 8577

Auto

57.6 21%

Teleop

167.8 61%

Endgame

51.7 19%

Strengths

· 1833 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 13%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.24 · Blue 2.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score-9.8pts

Blue projected score273.2pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 13%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -273.2
Score range: -15–288
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 437 vs event baseline 83.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

92.2Season APEX511.8

11.7Auto57.6

-17.5Teleop167.8

-5.4Endgame51.7

120Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	75
teleop	16	227
endgame	17	90
foul	0	0
total	45	392

Result

Final score

45 – 392

Prediction correct · off by 81.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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