PCH District Gwinnett Event presented by Gwinnett County Public Schools

Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

181.02 – 53.18

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

314 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 74.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 578.7 ±9.3

4509Mechanical Bulls

Season APEX 69.1Event APEX 26.46Rank 7Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1261Robo Lions Team1261

Season APEX 233.3Event APEX 19.51Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1771North Gwinnett Robotics

Season APEX 276.3Event APEX 135.05Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 172.4 ±11.6

4468Fernbank LINKS

Season APEX 45.9Event APEX 1.27Rank 18Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5651Maynard Jackson RoboJags

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 17.12Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6340The Marist Manatees

Season APEX 81.9Event APEX 34.79Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4509, 1261, 1771

/ 100 compat

Projected

181 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4509, 1261, 1771

Auto

64.5 35%

Teleop

99.9 54%

Endgame

21.5 12%

Strengths

· 1771 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4468, 5651, 6340

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.2 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4468, 5651, 6340

Auto

15.5 37%

Teleop

16.0 38%

Endgame

10.3 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.02 · Blue 0.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score181pts

Blue projected score53.2pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 127.8
Score range: 39–195
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 352 vs event baseline 79.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

578.7Season APEX172.4

64.5Auto15.5

99.9Teleop16

21.5Endgame10.3

75Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	13
teleop	194	20
endgame	58	5
foul	0	0
total	314	38

Result

Final score

314 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 74.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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