PCH District Gwinnett Event presented by Gwinnett County Public Schools

Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

72.58 – 30.11

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

21 – 148

Prediction missed · off by 84.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 288.8 ±10.5

5074RoboMustangs

Season APEX 31Event APEX 18.68Rank 22Record 4-6-2Status establishedConfidence 97

4189Chargers

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 27.81Rank 8Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

6910Mill Creek Steel Talons

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 26.09Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 246.3 ±10.5

5109Gladiator Robotics

Season APEX 68.3Event APEX 9.11Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1648G3 Robotics

Season APEX 139.4Event APEX 22.92Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8100Grayson Robotics

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX -1.92Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5074, 4189, 6910

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5074, 4189, 6910

Auto

14.2 19%

Teleop

39.7 53%

Endgame

20.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5109, 1648, 8100

/ 100 compat

Projected

30.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5109, 1648, 8100

Auto

24.6 71%

Teleop

22.7 65%

Endgame

-12.6 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score72.6pts

Blue projected score30.1pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 42.5
Score range: 15–88
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 169 vs event baseline 81.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

288.8Season APEX246.3

14.2Auto24.6

39.7Teleop22.7

20.7Endgame-12.6

2Consistency108

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	19
teleop	7	96
endgame	6	33
foul	0	0
total	21	148

Result

Final score

21 – 148

Prediction missed · off by 84.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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