PCH District Gwinnett Event presented by Gwinnett County Public Schools

Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 226.61

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

14 – 300

Prediction correct · off by 43.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 105.1 ±12.1

5293Metal Crusaders

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX -6.92Rank 19Record 4-5-2Status establishedConfidence 97

8865Dacula Droids

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX -6.28Rank 17Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

7538Metal Mountain

Season APEX 26.2Event APEX -13.68Rank 26Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 434.4 ±10.5

3318RoboDragons

Season APEX 48.2Event APEX 19.61Rank 21Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

1833Team BEAN

A+

Season APEX 303.7Event APEX 206.4Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3091100 Scholars

Season APEX 82.5Event APEX 0.6Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5293, 8865, 7538

/ 100 compat

Projected

-26.9 pts

~0.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5293, 8865, 7538

Auto

13.5 0%

Teleop

-29.4 100%

Endgame

-12.9 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3318, 1833, 3091

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.6 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3318, 1833, 3091

Auto

44.2 20%

Teleop

128.9 59%

Endgame

47.0 21%

Strengths

· 1833 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.27 · Blue 2.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score-26.9pts

Blue projected score226.6pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 14%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -226.6
Score range: -14–241
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 314 vs event baseline 78.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

105.1Season APEX434.4

13.5Auto44.2

-29.4Teleop128.9

-12.9Endgame47

122Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	51
teleop	8	165
endgame	1	84
foul	0	0
total	14	300

Result

Final score

14 – 300

Prediction correct · off by 43.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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