PCH District Gwinnett Event presented by Gwinnett County Public Schools

Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

75.68 – 0

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

130 – 28

Prediction correct · off by 41.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 173.9 ±12.2

4468Fernbank LINKS

Season APEX 45.9Event APEX -3.77Rank 18Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9057G.I.R.L.

Season APEX 32.2Event APEX 44.09Rank 24Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

1683Techno Titans

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX 35.36Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 132.4 ±12.1

7538Metal Mountain

Season APEX 26.2Event APEX -12.94Rank 26Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

3318RoboDragons

Season APEX 48.2Event APEX 12.87Rank 21Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9561Dawson Dinos

Season APEX 58Event APEX -7.52Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4468, 9057, 1683

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4468, 9057, 1683

Auto

11.2 15%

Teleop

34.3 45%

Endgame

30.4 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7538, 3318, 9561

/ 100 compat

Projected

-7.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7538, 3318, 9561

Auto

3.1 0%

Teleop

-10.0 100%

Endgame

-0.9 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.8 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score75.7pts

Blue projected score-7.6pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 14%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 75.7
Score range: -13–89
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 158 vs event baseline 72.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

173.9Season APEX132.4

11.2Auto3.1

34.3Teleop-10

30.4Endgame-0.9

68Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	12
teleop	77	16
endgame	16	0
foul	0	0
total	130	28

Result

Final score

130 – 28

Prediction correct · off by 41.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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