PCH District Gwinnett Event presented by Gwinnett County Public Schools

Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

50.57 – 39.21

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

48 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 4.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 331.1 ±10.5

8865Dacula Droids

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 2.17Rank 17Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

6910Mill Creek Steel Talons

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 27.96Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1261Robo Lions Team1261

Season APEX 233.3Event APEX 20.44Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 259 ±11.1

4701Warriors (Team W.I.R.E.)

Season APEX 20.1Event APEX 11.91Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4189Chargers

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 28.29Rank 8Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5293Metal Crusaders

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX -0.99Rank 19Record 4-5-2Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8865, 6910, 1261

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8865, 6910, 1261

Auto

29.3 52%

Teleop

28.3 51%

Endgame

-1.6 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4701, 4189, 5293

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4701, 4189, 5293

Auto

17.9 46%

Teleop

7.9 20%

Endgame

13.2 34%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score50.6pts

Blue projected score39.2pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.4
Score range: 26–64
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 80 vs event baseline 74.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

331.1Season APEX259

29.3Auto17.9

28.3Teleop7.9

-1.6Endgame13.2

72Consistency104

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	19
teleop	9	12
endgame	8	1
foul	0	0
total	48	32

Result

Final score

48 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 4.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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