PCH District Gwinnett Event presented by Gwinnett County Public Schools

Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

30.51 – 33.54

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

50 – 25

Prediction missed · off by 14 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 190.5 ±11.1

1648G3 Robotics

Season APEX 139.4Event APEX 33.65Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5074RoboMustangs

Season APEX 31Event APEX 1.81Rank 22Record 4-6-2Status establishedConfidence 97

4701Warriors (Team W.I.R.E.)

Season APEX 20.1Event APEX -4.95Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 96.2 ±11.6

5293Metal Crusaders

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 14.96Rank 19Record 4-5-2Status establishedConfidence 97

8815Barnstormers

Season APEX 35.7Event APEX -5.06Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11174Danes Robotics

Season APEX 32Event APEX 23.64Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1648, 5074, 4701

/ 100 compat

Projected

30.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1648, 5074, 4701

Auto

12.4 40%

Teleop

15.9 52%

Endgame

2.4 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5293, 8815, 11174

/ 100 compat

Projected

33.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5293, 8815, 11174

Auto

18.2 52%

Teleop

19.8 57%

Endgame

-3.2 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score30.5pts

Blue projected score33.5pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 15%, blue 16%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3
Score range: 19–46
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 75 vs event baseline 64.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

190.5Season APEX96.2

12.4Auto18.2

15.9Teleop19.8

2.4Endgame-3.2

93Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	10
teleop	20	11
endgame	0	4
foul	0	0
total	50	25

Result

Final score

50 – 25

Prediction missed · off by 14 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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