PCH District Gwinnett Event presented by Gwinnett County Public Schools

Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

63.55 – 94.12

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

44 – 120

Prediction correct · off by 22.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 278.9 ±12.4

1795Carver Clutch

Season APEX 25.8Event APEX 26.46Rank 30Record 0-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2415WiredCats

Season APEX 19.8Event APEX 2.22Rank 29Record 2-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

1261Robo Lions Team1261

Season APEX 233.3Event APEX 34.87Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 212.3 ±10.4

6910Mill Creek Steel Talons

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 13.96Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4509Mechanical Bulls

Season APEX 69.1Event APEX 35.25Rank 7Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1683Techno Titans

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX 44.91Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1795, 2415, 1261

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1795, 2415, 1261

Auto

26.3 44%

Teleop

20.9 35%

Endgame

13.2 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6910, 4509, 1683

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6910, 4509, 1683

Auto

25.0 27%

Teleop

59.0 63%

Endgame

9.9 11%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.01 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score63.6pts

Blue projected score94.1pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 15%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.6
Score range: 53–105
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 164 vs event baseline 63.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

278.9Season APEX212.3

26.3Auto25

20.9Teleop59

13.2Endgame9.9

119Consistency81

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	16
teleop	15	62
endgame	1	42
foul	0	0
total	44	120

Result

Final score

44 – 120

Prediction correct · off by 22.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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