PCH District Gwinnett Event presented by Gwinnett County Public Schools

Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

38.1 – 0

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

47 – 59

Prediction missed · off by 34 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 192.5 ±10.4

6705Wildcat5e

Season APEX 78.6Event APEX -15.41Rank 15Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

11174Danes Robotics

Season APEX 32Event APEX 18.44Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6340The Marist Manatees

Season APEX 81.9Event APEX 35.07Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 185.1 ±11

10482BuzzBots

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 13.48Rank 23Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5074RoboMustangs

Season APEX 31Event APEX -12.52Rank 22Record 4-6-2Status establishedConfidence 97

5109Gladiator Robotics

Season APEX 68.3Event APEX -3.06Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6705, 11174, 6340

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6705, 11174, 6340

Auto

13.1 34%

Teleop

21.6 56%

Endgame

3.7 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10482, 5074, 5109

/ 100 compat

Projected

-2.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10482, 5074, 5109

Auto

-0.2 100%

Teleop

-6.4 100%

Endgame

6.5 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.42 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score38.1pts

Blue projected score-2.1pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 14%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 38.1
Score range: -12–50
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 106 vs event baseline 66.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

192.5Season APEX185.1

13.1Auto-0.2

21.6Teleop-6.4

3.7Endgame6.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	11
teleop	30	39
endgame	8	9
foul	0	0
total	47	59

Result

Final score

47 – 59

Prediction missed · off by 34 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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