PCH District Gwinnett Event presented by Gwinnett County Public Schools

Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

111.24 – 45.56

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

39 – 54

Prediction missed · off by 40.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 338.2 ±11.1

1771North Gwinnett Robotics

Season APEX 276.3Event APEX 91.5Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8815Barnstormers

Season APEX 35.7Event APEX 13.5Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7538Metal Mountain

Season APEX 26.2Event APEX 6.24Rank 26Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 300.7 ±10.5

1261Robo Lions Team1261

Season APEX 233.3Event APEX 35.69Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9522Archimedes

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 23.07Rank 10Record 6-4-2Status establishedConfidence 100

4701Warriors (Team W.I.R.E.)

Season APEX 20.1Event APEX -13.2Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1771, 8815, 7538

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1771, 8815, 7538

Auto

52.2 48%

Teleop

65.6 60%

Endgame

-8.8 0%

Strengths

· 1771 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1261, 9522, 4701

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1261, 9522, 4701

Auto

18.8 42%

Teleop

29.1 66%

Endgame

-3.6 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.62 · Blue 0.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score111.2pts

Blue projected score45.6pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 65.7
Score range: 34–123
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 93 vs event baseline 67.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

338.2Season APEX300.7

52.2Auto18.8

65.6Teleop29.1

-8.8Endgame-3.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	29
teleop	10	7
endgame	3	13
foul	0	5
total	39	54

Result

Final score

39 – 54

Prediction missed · off by 40.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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