PCH District Gwinnett Event presented by Gwinnett County Public Schools

Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

30.3 – 157.94

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

33 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 30.4 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 121.3 ±12.1

5293Metal Crusaders

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 7.24Rank 19Record 4-5-2Status establishedConfidence 97

5651Maynard Jackson RoboJags

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 0.7Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3318RoboDragons

Season APEX 48.2Event APEX 22.36Rank 21Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 457.5 ±10.5

9561Dawson Dinos

Season APEX 58Event APEX 2.73Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1683Techno Titans

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX 33.21Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1833Team BEAN

A+

Season APEX 303.7Event APEX 122Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5293, 5651, 3318

/ 100 compat

Projected

30.3 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5293, 5651, 3318

Auto

-6.1 0%

Teleop

14.8 50%

Endgame

20.8 71%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9561, 1683, 1833

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9561, 1683, 1833

Auto

35.2 22%

Teleop

92.1 59%

Endgame

29.8 19%

Strengths

· 1833 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.57 · Blue 2.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score30.3pts

Blue projected score157.9pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -127.6
Score range: 18–170
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 249 vs event baseline 67.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

121.3Season APEX457.5

-6.1Auto35.2

14.8Teleop92.1

20.8Endgame29.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	47
teleop	8	136
endgame	10	33
foul	0	0
total	33	216

Result

Final score

33 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 30.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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