PCH District Gwinnett Event presented by Gwinnett County Public Schools

Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

96.58 – 127.98

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

64 – 15

Prediction missed · off by 72.8 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 369.6 ±10.7

4189Chargers

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 65.05Rank 8Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1648G3 Robotics

Season APEX 139.4Event APEX 39.15Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2415WiredCats

Season APEX 19.8Event APEX -7.62Rank 29Record 2-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 140.8 ±12.2

4468Fernbank LINKS

Season APEX 45.9Event APEX 13.76Rank 18Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4509Mechanical Bulls

Season APEX 69.1Event APEX 52.24Rank 7Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1795Carver Clutch

Season APEX 25.8Event APEX 61.98Rank 30Record 0-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4189, 1648, 2415

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4189, 1648, 2415

Auto

17.7 19%

Teleop

50.2 53%

Endgame

27.3 29%

Strengths

· 4189 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4468, 4509, 1795

/ 100 compat

Projected

128 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4468, 4509, 1795

Auto

24.4 19%

Teleop

73.0 57%

Endgame

31.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score96.6pts

Blue projected score128pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 17%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31.4
Score range: 84–141
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 79 vs event baseline 70.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

369.6Season APEX140.8

17.7Auto24.4

50.2Teleop73

27.3Endgame31

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	10
teleop	37	5
endgame	1	0
foul	0	0
total	64	15

Result

Final score

64 – 15

Prediction missed · off by 72.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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