PCH District Gwinnett Event presented by Gwinnett County Public Schools

Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

73.96 – 106.7

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

56 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 14.1 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 348 ±11.2

1261Robo Lions Team1261

Season APEX 233.3Event APEX 29.93Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9057G.I.R.L.

Season APEX 32.2Event APEX 4.33Rank 24Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

3091100 Scholars

Season APEX 82.5Event APEX 39.7Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 355.6 ±9.8

9522Archimedes

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 27.45Rank 10Record 6-4-2Status establishedConfidence 100

1771North Gwinnett Robotics

Season APEX 276.3Event APEX 78.11Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11174Danes Robotics

Season APEX 32Event APEX 1.14Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1261, 9057, 3091

/ 100 compat

Projected

74 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1261, 9057, 3091

Auto

14.8 21%

Teleop

48.0 68%

Endgame

8.3 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9522, 1771, 11174

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9522, 1771, 11174

Auto

30.6 29%

Teleop

80.8 76%

Endgame

-5.6 0%

Strengths

· 1771 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.01 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score74pts

Blue projected score106.7pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 16%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -32.7
Score range: 62–119
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 173 vs event baseline 68.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

348Season APEX355.6

14.8Auto30.6

48Teleop80.8

8.3Endgame-5.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	39
teleop	24	70
endgame	0	8
foul	5	0
total	56	117

Result

Final score

56 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 14.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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