PCH District Gainesville Event presented by Honeywell

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

77.61 – 42.41

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

140 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 35.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 157.3 ±11.7

3344Space Dragons

Season APEX 44.3Event APEX 32.11Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6705Wildcat5e

Season APEX 78.6Event APEX 28.02Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6712Mountaineers

Season APEX 34.4Event APEX 17.48Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 117.7 ±12.8

9582HHS NASA Snaggbotics

Season APEX 20.6Event APEX 7.14Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8577Georgia Cyber Academy Champions

Season APEX 68.7Event APEX 40.14Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4459LeoTechs

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX -4.87Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3344, 6705, 6712

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3344, 6705, 6712

Auto

19.2 26%

Teleop

35.3 47%

Endgame

20.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9582, 8577, 4459

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9582, 8577, 4459

Auto

14.9 34%

Teleop

23.3 53%

Endgame

5.6 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score77.6pts

Blue projected score42.4pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35.2
Score range: 21–99
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 191 vs event baseline 117.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

157.3Season APEX117.7

19.2Auto14.9

35.3Teleop23.3

20.7Endgame5.6

6Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	8
teleop	101	25
endgame	25	18
foul	0	0
total	140	51

Result

Final score

140 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 35.5 pts

Match videos

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