Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
65.77 – 108.23
37%63%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
119 – 109
Prediction missed · off by 27 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 121.3 ±12.1
Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 15.76Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 24.92Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 48.2Event APEX 25.09Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 221.8 ±11
Season APEX 102.3Event APEX 58.73Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 69.1Event APEX 27.93Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 21.57Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5651, 5293, 3318
44
/ 100 compatProjected
65.8 pts
~1.0 RP (district)
Teams: 5651, 5293, 3318
Auto
12.1 19%
Teleop
34.3 54%
Endgame
17.4 27%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 25%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1746, 4509, 8865
55
/ 100 compatProjected
108.2 pts
~1.7 RP (district)
Teams: 1746, 4509, 8865
Auto
12.0 11%
Teleop
54.1 51%
Endgame
39.0 37%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 25%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.69
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score65.8pts
Blue projected score108.2pts
Red win probability37%
Event bonus sample150alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 25%, blue 37%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -42.5
- Score range
- 45–129
- Upset likelihood
- 37%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
121.3Season APEX221.8
12.1Auto12
34.3Teleop54.1
17.4Endgame39
32Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 17 | 28 |
| teleop | 61 | 36 |
| endgame | 41 | 45 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 119 | 109 |
Result
Final score
119 – 109
Prediction missed · off by 27 pts
Match videos
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