Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
151.81 – 57.74
76%24%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
119 – 27
Prediction correct · off by 31.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 234.9 ±10.4
Season APEX 81.9Event APEX 58.23Rank 7Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 61.6Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 67.2Event APEX 31.98Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 137.3 ±11
Season APEX 58Event APEX 13.34Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 32Event APEX 26.81Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 17.59Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6340, 10482, 5219
71
/ 100 compatProjected
151.8 pts
~2.0 RP (district)
Teams: 6340, 10482, 5219
Auto
22.2 15%
Teleop
85.1 57%
Endgame
42.4 28%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 44%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9561, 11174, 9522
37
/ 100 compatProjected
57.7 pts
~0.8 RP (district)
Teams: 9561, 11174, 9522
Auto
9.7 17%
Teleop
24.5 43%
Endgame
22.9 40%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 44%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.03 · Blue 0.85
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score151.8pts
Blue projected score57.7pts
Red win probability76%
Event bonus sample150alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 44%, blue 34%
Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 94.1
- Score range
- 37–173
- Upset likelihood
- 24%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
234.9Season APEX137.3
22.2Auto9.7
85.1Teleop24.5
42.4Endgame22.9
0Consistency19
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 14 | 14 |
| teleop | 53 | 8 |
| endgame | 32 | 5 |
| foul | 20 | 0 |
| total | 119 | 27 |
Result
Final score
119 – 27
Prediction correct · off by 31.8 pts
Match videos
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