Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
195.01 – 54.84
85%15%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
232 – 58
Prediction correct · off by 20.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 335.9 ±10.5
Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 66.68Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 35.7Event APEX 18.57Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 109.76Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 135.1 ±12.8
Season APEX 38Event APEX 21.32Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 68.7Event APEX 39.19Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 28.4Event APEX -5.67Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8080, 8815, 4189
78
/ 100 compatProjected
195 pts
~2.2 RP (district)
Teams: 8080, 8815, 4189
Auto
31.3 16%
Teleop
125.1 63%
Endgame
40.7 21%
Strengths
- · 4189 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 42%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8761, 8577, 4459
34
/ 100 compatProjected
54.8 pts
~0.7 RP (district)
Teams: 8761, 8577, 4459
Auto
22.8 44%
Teleop
17.9 35%
Endgame
11.0 21%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 42%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.18 · Blue 0.7
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score195pts
Blue projected score54.8pts
Red win probability85%
Event bonus sample150alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 42%, blue 35%
Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 140.2
- Score range
- 34–216
- Upset likelihood
- 15%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-16
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
335.9Season APEX135.1
31.3Auto22.8
125.1Teleop17.9
40.7Endgame11
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 44 | 17 |
| teleop | 122 | 25 |
| endgame | 66 | 16 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 232 | 58 |
Result
Final score
232 – 58
Prediction correct · off by 20.1 pts
Match videos
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